Can a Disruptive PV Technology Topple First Solar? : Greentech Media

Can a Disruptive PV Technology Topple First Solar? : Greentech Media
昨天才發一篇希望有大廠保留現金實力等待新技術量產, 沒想到今天就看到GreenTech這篇.
美國/世界第一大(太陽能股王, 最賺錢太陽能廠, 現金實力最雄厚) FSLR會因為新技術崛起而走下坡衰敗嗎?

照現有技術, FSLR只能改善製程的方式來進行cost down (更別說 連機器設備都依賴歐美的亞洲廠商),
2010 Q2 從 Q1的$0.81/Watt降到0.76/Watt. 雖然成本降低方面有在進步, 但是要趕上Grid Parity還是不夠快, 甚至現有技術的理論值有她根本上的困難.

文中列出一串技術都可能從根本的改變整個Technology stack, 文中keyword很多 (雖然完全看不懂, 還是列一下):
•High efficiency III-V
•Intermediate band
•Quantum dots
•Thermophotovoltaics and Thermovoltaics
•Organics
•Plasmonics
•Nanotubes and Nanowires
•Photonic Crystals

High Efficiency III-V Materials:
for the low-cost volume deployment of Concentrating Photovoltaics (CPV).

Thermovoltaics and Thermophotovoltaics:
It's called PETE -- photon-enhanced thermionic emission. This process does require some exotic materials (cesium-coated gallium nitride) and works best at high temperatures

Nanostructures, Nanotubes and Nanowires:
Bandgap Engineering has developed tunable methods for nano-structuring silicon. Unlike bulk silicon, nano-silicon's optical properties can be tuned to reduce reflection and increase absorption, critical characteristics for any solar cell

Intermediate Band:
RoseStreet Labs Energy (RSLE) is developing an intermediate band nitride thin film semiconductor material. It's an alternative to the multijunction designs for improving power conversion efficiency of solar cells.

Plasmonics:
Plasmonics can improve absorption in photovoltaics and broaden the range of usable absorber materials to include more earth-abundant, non-toxic substances, as well as to reduce the amount of material necessary.

Quantum Dots:

Solar cell efficiency could theoretically be raised to more than 60 percent using quantum dots -- electrons can be transferred from photo-excited crystals to an adjacent electronic conductor.
Lightwave Power: funded by the Quercus Trust is working on plasmon-enabled solar