Video: What Can We Expect for the Solar Project Finance Market? Renewable Energy News Article
關於太陽光電信貸的一些討論與漫談, 一些很特別的觀點與現象:
* CSP, csi-PV, thin-film 哪一種最讓融資機構放心?
據此討論: CSP竟然掛零 (看來效率高不一定是決勝點, 考量點在: time-to-market, durability, O&M cost等criteria勝出才是放錢的關鍵), thin-film微量, 大多是csi-PV
* 市場上供應商規模從小到大一整個亂, 未來信貸市場如何撐起太陽光電普及?
裡面有個描述很特別, 目前的PV SI與一百年前的美國汽車製造商有點類似 (據討論, 100年前美國有上百家[手工]汽車製造商), 經過長期演變以高度資本與技術門檻的洗禮後, 現在只剩五至六家 且可能因為持續的併購案而減少當中.
* 1603 cash grant金援計畫將於今年底(2011)到期 對於美國太陽能是場的影響?
短期而言, 至少到明年中甚至Q3都不會有太多影響, 因為這些信貸下來的財務支持才會有後續的PV建置案, 但中長期而言目前的PV 整體成本還是需要政府或政策的金融資助(雖然目前價格持續下跌, 但是還不到半山腰). 否則市場降溫過快將加速產業從整, 影響新技術開發者進入此市場的意願. 就目前的技術水準而言, 與會者還是希望保持群龍無首的高度競爭, 從技術淘汰賽開始, 最後再進入資本淘汰賽.
Bush: Any time there is uncertainty, that's bad. The 1603 grant has been a really good widget from the government not just solar, but manufacturing and other industries as well. I think when that goes away, and we don't expect it to be extended, the grandfathering that Eli mentioned is probably going to happen, but the rules haven't been finalized yet. So we'll see how that works. Ultimately it will favor large developers and large balance sheets. This will lead to projects that die on the vine or smaller developers will sell out to larger developers. Given the relatively immature level of the industry so far, I don't think it's a good thing to have concentration at the development level right now — you want to have more competition. The less competition there is, the higher the prices are — even in a market where prices have been declining as much as they have. I think ultimately it will be a bad thing but who knows what will happen. We all thought it would go away last year and that didn't happen.
關於太陽光電信貸的一些討論與漫談, 一些很特別的觀點與現象:
* CSP, csi-PV, thin-film 哪一種最讓融資機構放心?
據此討論: CSP竟然掛零 (看來效率高不一定是決勝點, 考量點在: time-to-market, durability, O&M cost等criteria勝出才是放錢的關鍵), thin-film微量, 大多是csi-PV
* 市場上供應商規模從小到大一整個亂, 未來信貸市場如何撐起太陽光電普及?
裡面有個描述很特別, 目前的PV SI與一百年前的美國汽車製造商有點類似 (據討論, 100年前美國有上百家[手工]汽車製造商), 經過長期演變以高度資本與技術門檻的洗禮後, 現在只剩五至六家 且可能因為持續的併購案而減少當中.
* 1603 cash grant金援計畫將於今年底(2011)到期 對於美國太陽能是場的影響?
短期而言, 至少到明年中甚至Q3都不會有太多影響, 因為這些信貸下來的財務支持才會有後續的PV建置案, 但中長期而言目前的PV 整體成本還是需要政府或政策的金融資助(雖然目前價格持續下跌, 但是還不到半山腰). 否則市場降溫過快將加速產業從整, 影響新技術開發者進入此市場的意願. 就目前的技術水準而言, 與會者還是希望保持群龍無首的高度競爭, 從技術淘汰賽開始, 最後再進入資本淘汰賽.
Bush: Any time there is uncertainty, that's bad. The 1603 grant has been a really good widget from the government not just solar, but manufacturing and other industries as well. I think when that goes away, and we don't expect it to be extended, the grandfathering that Eli mentioned is probably going to happen, but the rules haven't been finalized yet. So we'll see how that works. Ultimately it will favor large developers and large balance sheets. This will lead to projects that die on the vine or smaller developers will sell out to larger developers. Given the relatively immature level of the industry so far, I don't think it's a good thing to have concentration at the development level right now — you want to have more competition. The less competition there is, the higher the prices are — even in a market where prices have been declining as much as they have. I think ultimately it will be a bad thing but who knows what will happen. We all thought it would go away last year and that didn't happen.
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