SMA doubles 2010 sales; focuses on international markets: pv-magazine

SMA doubles 2010 sales; focuses on international markets: pv-magazine PV Inverter的王者SMA出貨量與盈餘雙創新高, 看一下數據 說明強者恆強:

* €1.9 billion in 2010 (2009: €0.9 billion)

* sold 7.4 gigawatts (GW) of inverters in 2010 in comparison to 3.4 GW in the previous year.

* market share between 39 and 45 percent

* almost 45 percent of sales were generated outside of Germany (2009: 38.4 percent),

* SMA doubled its annual production capacity from five GW in 2009 to a total of 11 GW in 2010.

KW12 | Review recommends 14.7% reduction in ACT feed-in tariff rates for small scale PV - SolarServer

KW12 | Review recommends 14.7% reduction in ACT feed-in tariff rates for small scale PV - SolarServer

澳洲將小幅調降小型PV(<30kW) FIT費率, 目前期補助費率為 USD 0.463/kWh (看起來頗為誘人), 獨立研究公司建議調整後的FIT費率為USD 0.4/kWh. 將於2011/4做最後裁決並於2011/7開始生效.

該文提到相較於歐洲的市況與降幅, AU的調幅算是全球PV Market寒流中的一道暖流.

Belectric tops global PV system integrator rankings: pv-magazine

Belectric tops global PV system integrator rankings: pv-magazine

當國際市場眼光紛紛朝向最上游原料與最終端出海口時, IMS公布了PV SI的Ranking, 毫無意外德國的公司佔了top 30中的13個席次. 而趨勢直線上升的國別是美國, 且不同於其他國家業者, 美國業者崛起的市場非residential market, 應該與美國去年以來積極推動大型PV Farm計畫有關.

真正發揮上游與下游整合綜效且分別出現在世界排名前端的業界王者有兩家: 6th Q-Cells(DE), 7th First Solar (US).

IMS Ranking

1, BELECTRIC DE
2, Juwi DE
3, SunPower Corporation US
4, EDF Energies Nouvelles FR
5, SunEdison US
6, Q-Cells International DE
7, First Solar US
8, Enfinity BE
9, Phoenix Solar DE
10, Gehrlicher Solar DE
11, GP Joule DE
12, TerniEnergia SPA ITA
13, Relatio PV DE
14, S.A.G. Solarstorm DE
15, Fotowatio Renewable Ventures ESN

2011 台大杜鵑花季

公館校區大門口驚見Motech....

第一版

寄件者 2011trip

加強版

寄件者 2011trip

終極版本

寄件者 2011trip

Solarbuzz reveals its Top 10 PV cell manufacturers of 2010 | PV-Tech

Solarbuzz reveals its Top 10 PV cell manufacturers of 2010 | PV-Tech

2010 PV Cell 全球前十強排名出來囉....

1. Suntech, JA Solar 並列 (CN)
3. First Solar (USA)
4. Q-Cell (DE)
5. 茂迪 Motech (TW)
6. 昱晶 Gintech (TW)
7. Kyocera (JP), Sharp (JP)
9. Trina Solar (CN)
10.SunPower (USA)
11.Neo Solar (TW)
12.Canadian Solar (CN)

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2010 的PV Cell 總產量達 20.5GW (相較於 2009的9.86GW已經是翻倍成長).
此外根據SolarBuzz報導, 2010 PV Installation 達18.2GW... 這個數據相當驚人, 但是也為今年世界各國補貼政策持續向下埋下基期過高的隱憂.

150 MW Californian CPV project to use locally-produced modules: pv-magazine

150 MW Californian CPV project to use locally-produced modules: pv-magazine

RE Barrier again?

目前各國綠色產業的屏障有幾種:

1. 一定比例的國產品牌

2. 如同電信業的認證屏障 (這方面中國走最快, 金太陽是國家認證, 過了這關第二關就是看設備要跟哪個國家電網併聯 就再做一次類似IOT的grid testing)

3. 主要元件製造地必須在本國甚至地方政府行政區(如地方政府勢力龐大的美國).

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The Oil Drum | Safety of nuclear power and death of the nuclear renaissance

The Oil Drum Safety of nuclear power and death of the nuclear renaissance

當德國宣布, 不再延長核能電廠的License時限時, 我終於知道為何這個先進國家會不惜成本的去補貼PV Market.



Pray for JAPAN

Solar Summit 2011: The Inverter Market: Cheap, Flat and Crowded : Greentech Media

Solar Summit 2011: The Inverter Market: Cheap, Flat and Crowded : Greentech Media
2011 Inverter市況論述, 由於2010的原料短缺與市場搶佔高額FIT, 造成供應不及需求的效應很難在2011重複出現. 目前市場上價格將持續趨軟, 且至2010年底台面上廠商的年產能總和已經達到32GW, 很明顯的已經由賣方市場快速的轉為買方市場.

此份文章中臺灣的Delta與施耐得, 愛波比, 西門子等列為主力廠商.

至於領導廠商有哪些: SMA, Powerone, KACO, Fronius, new energy

台灣與中國廠商被列為低價挑戰者的market segment包含
科風與Motech.

這個市場最終還是以stability與quality決勝負 不論是強調cost或最佳效率得新技術
, though some manufacturers have indicated that cuts in initial $/W need to be balanced with reliability and quality concerns

低價雖然有其市場, 但是從market share分析, 目前仍然是大者恆大, 強者恆強的態勢... 如SMA通過UL準備攻入北美市場, SolarEdge等module level optimization的inverter技術:

The competition will rise in North America, too, as European challengers seek the next growth market. New U.S. production facilities like those announced by KACO New Energy, Power-One, Ingeteam, and Delta/LTi Reenergy show that European players are dedicated to establishing a long-term presence in the North American market

On a collision course with traditional inverters are micro-inverter and distributed optimization players, whose market grew over 125% in 2010. While Enphase generally receives most of the buzz with its estimated 17% share of the U.S. residential market in 2010, SolarEdge has relatively quietly shipped over 50 MW in the same period. These two market leaders represent a combined $167 million plus in venture capital backing, and the brimming war chests have allowed for aggressive global expansion campaigns. Nevertheless, there are dozens more in the space maneuvering for an edge; in just the first two months of 2011, there has already been one un-stealthing, several new product announcements, and entrances into the multi-MW market.

太陽能拚擴產步DRAM後塵？ 新日光：成本結構差異大不會發生_新聞_鉅亨網_投資全球 讓你鉅亨

太陽能拚擴產步DRAM後塵？ 新日光：成本結構差異大不會發生_新聞_鉅亨網_投資全球 讓你鉅亨

看到這則新聞與前一篇GIGAOM 指出 Solar VC 從專注Cell/Module量產或創新技術的公司撤退, 還同時想到日前韓國才信誓旦旦說PV產業轉折點快到了, 半導體那幾家巨獸也要進來玩Cell, 真不曉得這些幕後操盤者的算盤, 其實PV的製程技術與DRAM比起來應該是簡單許多(或者說基本的效率問題沒改善, CIGS massive production cost issue是個根本的屏障 衝過的就是另一家First Solar, 甚至取代他... 問題是新技術突破量產的成本目前還是無底洞).

1. 如果說PV Cell競賽(Polysilicon based)要比喻成 DRAM 我都覺得太抬舉這場PV Cell量產競賽(以生產設備投資額來說).

2. 業者Defense觀點, 還是沒有找出 出海口... 反而強調成本攤提沒有DRAM業慘 (等一些真正大咖 進來玩不賺錢遊戲 這些已經要上GW等級的廠商 如果後面的錢 不夠燒能撐多久? 這些公司的負債比如何? 為何Solar VC急著轉出改投最上游原料與最下游?)

潑完冷水還是看一下新日光怎麼玩吧:

2010 Fab2 新增 560MW 產能 (投資額 $4.1億元台幣)
2011 Fab3 新廠 400MW 產能 (投資額 $5 億元台幣)

2011 H1總產能概況 ~1.2GW:

Fab 1 : 100 MW
Fab 2 : 700 MW
Fab 3 : 400 MW

其實新日光雖然沒有TSMC入股, 但是經營階層卻滿多TSMC校友..
CEO, Sales & Marketing head 可惜的是這群半導體精英在檯面上還是只把這個產業當工廠經營.... 

What Solar VCs Want : Cleantech News and Analysis «

What Solar VCs Want : Cleantech News and Analysis «

產業趨勢誰的鼻子最靈? 當然是拿錢出來的VC... 根據GIGAOM這篇文章, 今年以來在Solar產業的資金流動方向出現了一些變化: 錢往最上游原料與最下游終端產品出口移動. 對於那些擴廠幾G幾G的... 站在保留的態度..

Instead, venture capitalists are looking for materials that can significantly boost the sunlight-to-electricity efficiencies without requiring hefty investments to build factories. They also like solar software and services, which as we’ve pointed, could still be a good area for early-stage investments.

很意外的, 竟然最下游的project developer scope也在VC感興趣的項目... 應該是看中美國政府決心boost RE產業吧.

Lately, solar companies that provide sales, installation, financing and other services at the retail end have been attracting venture capital, along with startups that focus on developing materials that could be made in house and licensed for another stream of revenues.

至於現階段, 中國與台灣廠商大舉投資的量產業務或CIGS等其他新興項目 看看這些VC的看法:

Yokell said that, in retrospect, there might have been “too many dollars that went to me-too types of investments.” The best pitch from startups these days should include a discussion about how they could make money with far less money than their peers, he added.

“Even if you have something interesting, investors will be scared if you have to raise $150 million to commercialize your innovation,” Yokell said.

Solar power can make grid harder to run - SignOnSanDiego.com

Solar power can make grid harder to run - SignOnSanDiego.com
這是個有趣的問題, 而且可能也點出了以後的需要面對的問題.

1. 太多的PV (代表更多不穩定的電源來源), 對電網的衝擊?
(有趣的是 現階段PV相關業者常把本身的產品不穩定性歸功於電網品質不佳).

2. 當大家都主動想要有PV時, 電網業者才是老大, 電網主導者決定誰家的系統與產品才能進入我的網路 (IOT?)

3. Energy Storage 還會在被炒一波... 直到真正的breakthrough技術出現前.

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